Well, if there is one thing 2022 taught us at Fredericksburg Realty and Texas Ranch Realty, it’s that the state of real estate is always changing. And two years can make a lot of difference. There are a myriad of real estate statistics out there that could have you running for the hills if you take them at face value, but let’s stick to looking at the positives and then look ahead to 2023.
Positive #1: Housing prices have plateaued.
From Jan to December 2020, the average sold price increased 25% from 2019. In 2021, it increased an additional 20% from the previous year. In comparison, 2022 saw an increase of 13%. Anyone that looks at real estate statistics will tell you that we were living in an anomaly during those ’20 and ’21 spikes. However, if you look year-to-year, average list price is up 11% from last year. Due to lower inventory of $300-$400,000 homes coupled with an increase in raw small tracks has driven that number up whereas we had more sales in the $400,000 residential homes from B&B sales. A move to rural properties has driven that up. Will increases ever go back to double digits? Probably not. And that’s a good thing. A steady increase, commensurate with inflation is acceptable and expected, but a good plateau is just what Fredericksburg needs.
Positive #2: The number of “Days on Market” has not changed dramatically.
In November of 2021, the average days on market was 180. November of 2020 it was 223. In 2022, it was 126. That’s only 9 days difference from last year. And that’s just November. If you look at year long statistics, “days on market” was down 30% from 2021. The first thing people think in a slow real estate economy is “It’s going to take forever for my property to sell.” That’s not necessarily the case. You may not have 10 back up offers waiting in the wings, but if you work with an experienced realtor that knows how to price and market your property according to the current economy, you WILL attract a buyer. Plus, according to the Census Bureau, Texas is the 2nd highest inbound state, second only to Florida. Which means….people are moving to Texas.
Positive #3: Closed sales are creeping back up.
In November of 2020, closed sales were up a whopping 177%. We can probably all agree that was fairytale land. Then in November of 2021, they took a nosedive by 41%. This November, closings are up 2.8%. While that doesn’t seem like something to write home about, it does say things are moving in the right direction.
You might call the current state of real estate in Gillespie County “The Great Leveling.” It’s certainly bringing us all back down to earth. As for 2023, we predict a steady, reasonable flow of transactions. Interest rates are predicted to coast at historic norms of 3-7%. In general, as with any dramatic changes in life, once we get past the initial reaction— whether that’s fight or flight — we get back to life as usual.
Whether you are considering selling or acquiring property, we would love to be your trusted real estate partner and advisor. At Fredericksburg Realty and Texas Ranch Realty, we stand by our word, our authenticity and treat each client like family.